[Poetry] Michael Scott pursuing his life long dream
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What if that Weedle is level 100

Then Michael deserves the pain because only a sociopath would have a level 100 Weedle

Firing up the emulator because I must now do all weedle 100

Lvl 36 252 SpA Charizard Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Weedle: 140-168 (49.2 - 59.1%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO

But wait, Weedle's faster, and...

252+ Atk Choice Band Weedle Poison Sting vs. Lvl 36 0 HP / 0 Def Charizard: 63-75 (55.7 - 66.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

These are just the typical sets smashed into each other, with a L36 Charizard to give Weedle the best chance while still allowing the Charizard to run a competitive spread. OK, so there's no "typical" Weedle set, but I figured I'd go with a 252 HP/252 Atk Adamant set with Choice Band because it needs all the oomph it can get, plus some HP to survive. Also, a quad-resisted Bug Bite matches the damage of a neutral Poison Sting, so it's a pretty spammable attack. Speaking of which, why am I using Poison Sting? Because it can poison as well, and weird rounding stuff makes it hit slightly harder in a lot of cases ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Charizard, on the other hand, is running a 252 SpA/252 Spe Timid Heavy-Duty Boots set, which is quite a suboptimal spread in this matchup - all that speed investment still doesn't let it go first. And since this is unexpectedly close, what happens if it invests more heavily into its niche as an underleveled Weedle check? There are a few options here. One is a scarf set, but if the Weedle trainer is prepared, that makes Zard pretty shaky as a check - the highest possible speed stat it can reach is 181, which can be countered by investing 184 Spe EVs on Weedle to reach 182. However, that comes at a price; Charizard can give up hope of going first and invest defensively instead, with a 252 Def/252 SpA Modest spread, which will allow it to hit much harder. Weedle's insurance against being exploited by Scarf Zard also leaves it somewhat frailer, but that doesn't even matter:

Lvl 36 252+ SpA Choice Specs Charizard Flamethrower vs. 148 HP / 0 SpD Weedle: 186-222 (72 - 86%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Weedle Poison Sting vs. Lvl 36 4 HP / 252 Def Charizard: 48-57 (42.4 - 50.4%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO

Charizard has the luxury of using the 100% accurate Flamethrower over Fire Blast, while Weedle's only real hope is a Poison Sting proc on top of good damage rolls while also avoiding a burn. There's still an outside chance for the faster Weedle to come out on top, but it's vanishingly slim. However, there's one other option:

Lvl 36 252+ SpA Choice Specs Charizard Flamethrower vs. 32 HP / 224 SpD Assault Vest Weedle: 72-86 (31.4 - 37.5%) -- 80.9% chance to 3HKO

Assault Vest gives Weedle a spicy SpD boost, which pairs great with some EV investment. However, in return:

252+ Atk Weedle Poison Sting vs. Lvl 36 4 HP / 252 Def Charizard: 33-39 (29.2 - 34.5%) -- 1.2% chance to 3HKO

Ouch. Or rather, not ouch. Still there's the chance to poison. A single tick of poison damage happens to leave Charizard at 99 hp, while 33 is the minimum damage roll for Poison Sting, so Weedle will always win in that case. Except Charizard has a 10% chance to burn each turn, which will negate more damage than the poison deals except in cases where Weedle poisons on the first turn and Charizard burns on the second.

That means:

In 10% of battles, Charizard will burn on the first turn. Charizard wins all of these.

Of the 90% of all battles, in which Charizard doesn't burn on the first turn, Weedle will poison on either the first or the second turn 51% of the time (45.9% of total battles). Weedle wins all of these.

Of the remaining 44.1% of all battles, in which Charizard does not burn on the first turn and Weedle does not poison on either the first or the second turn, Charizard will burn on the second turn 10% of the time (4.41% of all battles). Now, remember how Charizard had a 80.9% chance to 3HKO? Fortunately for me...

Lvl 36 252+ SpA Choice Specs Blaze Charizard Flamethrower vs. 32 HP / 224 SpD Assault Vest Weedle: 108-128 (47.1 - 55.8%) -- 73.4% chance to 2HKO

Charizard will always survive three hits if Weedle is burned in the first two turns, will always be low enough health to activate Blaze, and will always confirm the 3HKO with a Blaze activation. Therefore, Charizard wins in the full 4.41% of battles where it burns on the second turn without being poisoned.

Of the remaining 39.69% of all battles, in which no relevant status occurs, Weedle will 3HKO Charizard through damage rolls 1.2% of the time (0.47628% of total battles).

Thanks to Blaze, Charizard will 3HKO and win all of the remaining 39.21372% of battles. That puts the odds at 53.62372% - 46.37628%, in favor of Charizard. As stupid as it looks, we do have the proper sig figs to report the battle to such accuracy.

Except...

252+ Atk Weedle Poison Sting vs. Lvl 36 4 HP / 252 Def Charizard on a critical hit: 49-58 (43.3 - 51.3%) -- 5.9% chance to 2HKO

Lvl 36 252+ SpA Choice Specs Charizard Flamethrower vs. 32 HP / 224 SpD Assault Vest Weedle on a critical hit: 108-128 (47.1 - 55.8%) -- 73.4% chance to 2HKO

Each attack has a 1/24 chance (~4.167%) to score a critical hit, dealing 1.5x damage. This can change the outcome in the following highly infrequent ways:

Weedle wins if it crits on the first two turns. In cases where Charizard would win due to its own crits, Weedle still wins if it is not burned on the first turn and has high enough damage rolls.

Charizard wins if it crits on the first two turns, and is crit twice by Weedle but not poisoned or KO'd by high damage rolls.

Charizard wins if it crits on the first two turns, is crit twice by Weedle with the minimum damage roll both times, and is poisoned on the second turn.

Weedle wins if it crits on the first three turns, is burned on the first turn, and poisons on the first turn.

Weedle wins if it crits on the first three turns, is burned on the first turn, poisons on the second turn, and has high enough damage rolls.

However...

I have elected to round the odds to 54% - 46% in favor of level 36 Charizard vs level 100 Weedle. Thank you and have a nice day.

Sometimes I think I'm a nerd, and I'll have this post to remind just how much of a pleb I am.

what the fuck

This guy Showdown's.

Weedle can learn Electroweb through move tutor in USUM. With a base power of 55 and being super effective on 'zard it's a vastly superior move for Weedle when compared to poison sting, allowing it to guarantee a OHKO (with specs) on a fully specially bulky level 40 Charizard or a level 51 Charizard that has no defensive investment. 

252+ SpA Choice Specs Weedle Electroweb vs. Lvl 40 252 HP / 252+ SpD Charizard: 150-178 (100 - 118.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252+ SpA Choice Specs Weedle Electroweb vs. Lvl 51 0 HP / 0+ SpD Charizard: 156-184 (100 - 117.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Now for some old skool calculations. I'm not sure if the video is Pokémon Statium 1 or 2 so lets have both. A level 100 Weedle vs a level 36 Charizard shows that the Weelde does more damage with poison sting than Charizard does with Flamethrower, yet Fire blast does more than Poison Sting, yet Poison Sting has a 4HKO chance so since Weedle is faster, assuming no burn, it could KO the Charizard before it gets KOd by it, especially if it poisons. 

Weedle Poison Sting vs. Lvl 36 Charizard: 30-36 (22.2 - 26.6%) -- 17.7% chance to 4HKO  
Lvl 36 Charizard Flamethrower vs. Weedle: 57-68 (20.1 - 24%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
Lvl 36 Charizard Fire Blast vs. Weedle: 73-86 (25.7 - 30.3%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Gen 2 is worse for Weedle, however. Poison Sting is still a 4HKO, and with Poison Barb it can hit a 99.1 chance instead of being a 17.7%, but the Weedle will probably need leftovers if it's to win. Lv. 36 Charizard with Charcoal now has a 0.9% chance to 4HKO, even after Weedle's Leftovers recovery and Fire Blast has a 7.2% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery. If the Charizard also has leftovers then Poison Sting becomes a possible 5HKO (poison barb doesn't help), but without the boost from charcoal it makes Flamethrower a possible 5HKO too while Fire Blast drops to a Guaranteed 4HKO. Charizard's increased damage in Gen 2 makes it much harder for Weedle to survive when compared to gen 1, but it can still win if luck is on it's side, especially since it's faster.

The minute I learned that I should be paying attention to stats was the minute I realized I don't want to play Pokemon anymore

In fairness, you really don't have to at all if you're just playing the story. It really only becomes relevant in a competitive setting against other players

You honestly barely need to look at stats to beat the main story of most any game.

gonna read this out loud tomorrow thank you pokemath

That's. Too much... let's step into the sunlight together shall we?

What the fuck

With a focus sash and a revenge kill move of course

If he's level 100 the focus sash probably isn't going to trigger, and more to the point, Weedle can only learn 4 moves: Poison Sting, String Shot, Bug Bite, and Electroweb.

Ha I’m jk mate. It wouldn’t be the FEAR ratattata if weedle could do it!

Still, I’m just a simple man trying to find a way for Mr. Scott to win.

WHERE ARE THE SQUIRTLES?!?!

May god guide you on your quest

Charmander? I hardly know her!

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What a terrible bot/account.

The bot doesn't know I touch grass with my lips every day

(☞ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)☞

Dude, you comment like 100 times in a day. Shut the fuck up.

I wonder which gym he made it to. That better not be the first.

Y’know michael having a weedle is very fitting

-Weedle used "harden"

-That's what she said!

This looks like a Windows 95 game.

This is better than it has any right to be

Oh my god this is amazing

When you're exp scumming the elite 4

This just made me miss Pokémon Stadium so much

[removed]

The above comment was stolen from this one elsewhere in this comment section.

It is probably not a coincidence, because this user has done it before:

Original | Plagiarized -------- | ----------- Thank you, I needed a good lau... | Thank you, I needed a good lau... The giraffe fucking drowns lma... | The giraffe fucking drowns lma... This has same vibes as a Studi... | This has same vibes as a Studi... USA : Time to unblocc the huma... | USA : Time to unblocc the huma... You are gonna break the cat | You are gonna break the cat Incredibly cute but be careful... | Incredibly cute but be careful... Great way to get to know each ... | Great way to get to know each ... “I don’t want the ball, I just... | “I don’t want the ball, I just...

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